Using mathematical probability theory for foetal monitoring
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18597/rcog.570Keywords:
foetal welfare, foetal monitoring, probabilityAbstract
Objective: describing foetal monitoring using mathematical probability theory and defining the system’s dynamic components, seeking an initial approach towards obtaining objective and reproducible measurements, such general overview allowing any monitoring trace so obtained to be mathematically evaluated.
Design: this was a descriptive exploratory study employing probability-based mathematical generalisation.
Materials and methods: 45 pregnant women were studied. They were divided into two groups: group A presented foetal suffering risk factors whilst group B presented no such risk factors. All of them undergone fetal monitoring; foetal heartbeat behaviour was recorded. Each data-readout was evaluated for the appearance and probability of four dynamic system components (DSC).
Results: a foetus was probably healthy if it had 3 or more times DSC T1 in its readout; if this was not the case, then such foetus was probably sick. Cases where DSC T1 appeared once or twice defined a possible limit between health and illness. It was 10 times more probable that possibly healthy foetuses would be monitored than intermediate traces and 1,000 times more probable than those presenting the least probability of appearing within total probability. The mathematical calculations suggested that one in two readouts from group A and one in three from group B could have had a doubtful diagnosis according to conventional clinical parameters. This methodology could be used for evaluating each patient’s evolution towards health or illness. However, a more rigorous study is required for clinical application.
Author Biographies
Javier Rodríguez
Vicente José Carmona
Guillermo Avilán
Paola Andrea Hincapié
References
Benson R. Diagnóstico y tratamiento ginecoobstétrico. 4 ed. México DF: El Manual Moderno SA de CV; 1986.
Sánchez F. Alto riesgo obstétrico. Bogotá: Universidad Nacional de Colombia; 1988.
Pritchard JA, MacDonald PC, Gant NF (eds). Williams Obstetricia. Barcelona: Salvat Editores; 1986.
Borgatta L, Shrout PE, Divon MY. Reliability and reproducibility of nonstress test readings. Am J Obstet Gynecol 1988;159:554-8.
Feynman RP, Leighton RB, Sands M. Probabilidad. En: Feynman RP, Leighton RB, Sands M. Física. Vol. 1. Wilmington: Addison-Wesley Iberoamericana, S.A.; 1964. p. 6-1, 6-16.
Mood AM, Graybill FA, Boes D. Introduction to the theory of statistics. 3a. ed. Singapore: McGraw-Hill; 1974.
Blanco L. Probabilidad, notas de clase. Universidad Nacional de Colombia. Departamento de Matemáticas y Estadística; 1996.
Devoe LD. Nonstress testing and contraction stress testing. Obstet Gynecol Clin North Am 1999;26:535-56.
National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Research Planning Workshop. Electronic fetal heart rate monitoring: research guidelines for interpretation. Am J Obstet Gynecol 1997;177:1385-90.
Goldberger AL, West BJ. Fractals in physiology and medicine. Yale J Biol Med 1987;60:421-35.
Goldberger AL, Rigney DR, West BJ. Chaos and fractals in human physiology. Sci Am 1990;262:42-9.
Lipsitz LA, Goldberger AL. Loss of «complexity» and aging. Potential applications of fractals and chaos theory to senescence. JAMA 1992;267:1806-9.
Goldberger AL. Non-linear dynamics for clinicians: chaos theory, fractals, and complexity at the bedside. Lancet 1996;347:1312-4.
Goldberger AL, Amaral LA, Hausdorff JM, Ivanov PCh, Peng CK, Stanley HE. Fractal dynamics in physiology: alterations with disease and aging. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 2002;99:2466-72.
Huikuri HV, Mäkikallio TH, Peng CK, Goldberger AL, Hintze U, Moller M. Fractal correlation properties of R-R interval dynamics and mortality in patients with depressed left ventricular function after an acute myocardial infarction. Circulation 2000;101:47-53.
Rodríguez J, Mariño M, Avilán N, Echeverri D. Medidas fractales de arterias coronarias en un modelo experimental de reestenosis. Armonía matemática intrínseca de la estructura arterial. Rev Colomb Cardiol 2002;10:65-72.
How to Cite
Downloads
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
| Article metrics | |
|---|---|
| Abstract views | |
| Galley vies | |
| PDF Views | |
| HTML views | |
| Other views | |
